EconomyBeat.org » banking and finance http://economybeat.org user-generated content about the economy Mon, 14 Nov 2011 17:37:12 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 Podcast highlighting public radio coverage of the economy, the recession, employment, the mortgage crisis and health care issues. Roman Mars no Roman Mars sysadmin.robert@prx.org sysadmin.robert@prx.org (Roman Mars) 2006-2010 Public radio coverage of the economy. economy, healthcare, mortgage, recession, unemployment EconomyBeat.org » banking and finance http://economybeat.org/files/2011/11/economybeatpodcast.png http://economybeat.org/category/banking-and-finance/ Global financial collapse timeline http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/global-financial-collapse-timeline/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=global-financial-collapse-timeline http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/global-financial-collapse-timeline/#comments Thu, 29 Apr 2010 20:28:39 +0000 Jon Brooks http://www.economybeat.org/?p=8528 From the Real-World Economics Review Blog, a timeline of warnings and events going back to 1995 and leading up to the financial crisis of the last few years. Some early warnings from various economists:

Sept, 2001

“the new housing boom is another rapidly inflating asset bubble financed by the same loose money practices that fuelled the stock market bubble.”

Aug, 2002

“While the short-term effects of a housing bubble appear very beneficial—just as was the case with the stock bubble and the dollar bubble—the long-term effects from its eventual deflation can be extremely harmful, both to the economy as a whole, and to tens of millions of families that will see much of their equity disappear unexpectedly. The economy will lose an important source of demand as housing construction plummets and the wealth effect goes into reverse. This will slow an economy already reeling from the effects of the collapse of the stock bubble of 1999, … Unfortunately, most of the nation’s political and economic leadership remained oblivious to the dangers of the stock market and dollar bubbles until they began to deflate. This failure created the basis for the economic uncertainty the country currently faces … [which] will be aggravated further by the deflation of the housing bubble. This process will prove even more painful if the housing bubble is allowed to expand still further before collapsing.”

2003

“I am very pessimistic. We are heading into something in the world which is worse than what we experienced in 1982. It will be the worst recession since the Second World War.”

“The reckless financial policies of leading western powers in the last two decades make it likely that the next seismic debt crisis will be in America, not Argentina. It can be avoided . . . only by serious efforts to bring regulation and balance to the international economy.”

“There will be a collapse in the credit system in the rich world, led by the United States.”

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Here we go again… http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/here-we-go-again/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=here-we-go-again http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/here-we-go-again/#comments Mon, 26 Apr 2010 18:07:30 +0000 Jon Brooks http://www.economybeat.org/?p=8328
“Where’s the part in this bill where anyone who takes down the entire financial system has to live on the street in a box over a steam vent?”

Wow surprise. Seems we have all 59 Democrats supporting a sprawling piece of reform legislation, and all 41 Republicans opposing it. And of course, those 41 votes are enough to maintain a filibuster. Sound familiar?

Democrats say the bill imposes new financial industry regulations necessary to prevent the kind of meltdown that nearly collapsed the global financial system in 2008. Republicans say the bill encourages a “too big to fail” mentality that requires government bailouts, an argument that many observers feel is, to put it charitably, malarkey. (Watch Paul Krugman, in hyperbolic mode, call it “possibly the most dishonest argument ever made in the history of politics.”)

With polls showing a big majority of Americans favoring more financial regulation, Democrats think the GOP won’t be able to hold fast on this one, and even many Republicans in Congress are predicting the bill’s eventual passage.

Here are some comments from New York Times and Washington Post readers.

According to figures released on Meet the Press, Sen. Dodd received over $6 million last year from the financial sector. He’s retiring this year – undoubtedly to a lucrative consulting job representing Wall Street interests. Depend on him and his well-funded Senate cronies in both parties to produce some overheated flimflam accomplishing nothing and leaving the bad actors, including the Fed and Goldman, at the top of the greed heap, the taxpayers holding the bag and the US government headed toward overt bankruptcy.

Not a word about auditing the Fed, overwhelmingly passed by the House, or investigating the central bank/Morgan/Goldman manipulation of the gold markets as recently heard by the Commodity Futures board, or anything about the phony gold-plated tungsten bars received last fall by the Chinese, apparent source: Fort Knox and the Fed. The Dodd Senate bill actually empowers the Fed even more than presently, and restricts the attempts at transparency in the House bill. That’s not going to be good for anybody except the financial elites and their politicians.

Nope, all these characters are going to try to take the money and run and cover their tracks with a lot of meaningless hot air. Any one of them up for reelection this had better get out in front on this with something meaningful, because the public on both the Right and the Left is wise to them at last.

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What does herding cats and a united Congress have in common? They are near impossible to do. I put my bets on herding cats.

The so called big tent of the Democratic Party can’t do anything without watering bills down to their weakest component. The health care bill, helping the unemployed and the stimulus bill showed that. The “Blue Dogs” are just Republicans in disguise. And the Republicans? They know they have the Democrats on the ropes and they can continue down the road of obstructionism. Their hope, to have nothing come out of Congress through November, so they can say that the Democrats cannot run the country (page one from their 1994 playbook). Couple this with a President that has done a lousy job in uniting his party and forcing through his agenda. His “hands off” on health care is also a glaring example.

So, if an financial reform bill does emerge it will be similar to the health care bill. That is, it placates the special interests and the very companies that reform was suppose to target. And in the end, Wall Street will bring the economy down again before 2020.

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We know many of the democrats leading this legislative effort took plenty of money from the financial industry. Our own President took $1 million from Goldman. I would like CSPAN on during deliberations and a full disclosure singling out who got what from whom and which lobbyists are out in the hallways passing out information sheets and leaning on legislators.

This whole thing smells like low tide already and the “blame republicans” rally call is old before it gets going. Are Pelosi/Reid even capable of sincere bi-partisan efforts? I am not sure. I do hope they remember their Congress has an approval rating around 14% and that means the public has seen their dog and pony show before and is not pleased.

In short, let’s keep this clean, open and non partisan. America deserves better.

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There are multiple problems with (the surveyshowing support from the bill) that pretty much make it meaningless. First of all, I would guess that roughly 5% or so of the American public understands what a derivative is and so has no idea whether they should be more highly regulated or not. Second, the question about whom you trust is misleading in the extreme. The choice should not be between Obama and the Republicans because Obama doesn’t write and pass legislation (yet). The choice should have been between the republicans and the democrats. Finally, yet again we are asking the American people what they support when they have no idea what the legislation will actually contain. All this survey indicates is that the American public is pissed off at large financial institutions and want something done. Beyond that, this survey has absolutely no legitimate value.

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The Senate needs to pass the toughest regulations it can on the financial markets and the instruments that allowed the CEOs of Wall Street to plunder the investments and retirement savings of average Americans. Then the Federal government needs to rid itself of the Bush/Cheney anti-regulation appointees immediately and prosecute the guilty individuals, particularly the CEOs at Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, etc. who defrauded individual investors, pension funds and municipalities. We should not rest until all of the guilty parties are behind bars.

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As a very crude rule-of-thumb we could say if Wall Street doesn’t want it, it should be made law.

Wall Street is a shell-game, and “derivatives,” as seen from its very name, is a major component of a shell game – in this case the “value” of what the buyer is purchasing is “derived” from something else, something hidden away. The perfect con. And criminals on Wall Street have made billions doing this.

All financial dealings should have total transparency and then the supposed theory underlying market capitalism should work; however the fundamental basis of Wall Street is total obfuscation, and that is where they make their (obscene) money.

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Democrats unite? FINALLY. Did they just now realize that THEY won the election? That they HAVE 59 votes. That we sent them to Washington to ACT. If President Roosevelt and the Congress had performed as this Congress has, we would STILL be in the First Great Depression.

And how about criminal charges, not civil, against these Master of the Universe who have brought us (we are STILL there) to the brink of the abyss? Let them pay their lawyers and fines for their dishonest actions with their fat and undeserved bonuses!

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This is the issue that could deny the Republicans and gains this election. The anti-incumbant mood that they were hoping to ride could very quickly be trumped by the much deeper hatred for recidivist bankers and their klepotocratic Republican crony politicians.

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Why don’t I trust the Democrats with trying to “rush” through a bill. They sure don’t seem to have given enough thought to the stimulus, the health care bill and the proposed energy bill. All of them work around a political agenda, not solving problems.

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The Republicans are committing political suicide by letting themselves by exposed for what they really are: water boys for the banking industry and an enemy of the Common Man and Woman. I am so enjoying this.

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It’s laughable to read all the mindless comments here from Obama’s gang of leftist zombies. Just look around you. The vast majority of people living in the canyons of vast wealth on the upper east and west sides, along with the Hamptons and other retreats for the wealthy are died in the wool Democrats. And who infests the upper east and west sides, who vote almost exclusively for and contribute millions to Democrats…people in the financial, entertainment, and artistic communities…So suddenly it’s the Republicans who are wedded to the financial industry? Are you people willfully ignorant or just uninformed robots who repeat verbatum whatever Obama reads from his teleprompter?

Try reading the Wall Street Journal for financial info. Today we learn that Obama’s close friend and supporter Warren Buffet is leaning on Democrats in the Senate to put in a sweetheart exclusion for him so he doesn’t have to have the same reserves against derivities as the peasants who aren’t in bed with Obama. Recall also, is you have any vestige of honesty, that notorious financier and predatory short seller George Soros is the Democratic Party and Obama’s largest financial supporter, contributing tens of millions. Then there’s big Democratic supporter Bernie Maddoff and most all of the Golman Sachs crowd and other financial tycoons…So it’s the Republicans fault? So wanting to actually read the bill and not passing by coctail hour is somehow wanting to kill financial reform? Only the pathetically stupid and/or uninformed can construct such a Rube Goldbergian argument.

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It only took 9 years for the economy to fall after Glass- Steagal was repealed under a democrat administration. The commodities modernation act- another gift form teh Clinton admin is what allowed Goldman’s derivitives games now exposed. Arguing for or against what Republicans or Democrats want is just a diversion, both parties are puppets to wall street and the banksters. Just like the health care bill, both parties are puppets to the health insurance industries, the final bill will be so watered down that it will be a joke.

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Where’s the part in this bill where anyone who takes down the entire financial system has to live on the street in a box over a steam vent?

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The Goldman Sachs fraud case explained http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/the-goldman-sachs-fraud-case-explained/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-goldman-sachs-fraud-case-explained http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/the-goldman-sachs-fraud-case-explained/#comments Mon, 19 Apr 2010 16:37:27 +0000 Jon Brooks http://www.economybeat.org/?p=8153 Time magazine describes the SEC fraud case against Goldman Sachs this way:

On Friday, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed civil securities-fraud charges against Goldman Sachs, alleging the investment bank and its partners created mortgage bonds that were set up to go bust. Goldman then sold these bonds, which are called collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), to unsuspecting investors, who then lost $1 billion on the deal.

Economists Do It With Models tries to explain this in a little more detail and in layman’s terms:

Hedge fund guy: I think the housing market is going to go to s**t in the next few years. More specifically, I think I know which parts of the housing market are particularly vulnerable. In order to profit off of this information, I would like to short sell a financial product that is tied to the housing market. In other words, I’m going to borrow one of these securities, sell it at the current high price, buy it back once it’s worthless and then give it back to the original owner, keeping the profit for myself. (Update: Technically the short position was achieved via a credit default swap as opposed to a regular short sale. This doesn’t affect the overall analysis, and you can see my comment below for more detail.) Now, there are a few products out there that would be appropriate for this, but it would be totally better if I could design the product myself, since then I could be extra sure that it would tank as much as possible, thus maximizing my profit. Let me call my buddies at Goldman and see what they can do for me.

Goldman Sachs, to hedge fund guy: Sure, we can do that, just tell us what you would like the crappy product to look like. But wait a second…you do realize that it’s hard to short sell something unless other people actually hold the product in their portfolios, right? And who in their right minds would buy something that you, as a smart guy, specifically picked as being the bottom of the housing market barrel? That kind of throws a monkey wrench into your plan…but wait, I think we might have a solution to this problem. So here’s the deal – you’re gonna get a call from another financial firm, and you’re gonna tell them that you are looking to create a product to invest in. Now, this is technically true, so all you’re really doing is leaving out the teeny detail that you are taking a short position rather than betting on an increase in value. No big deal, right? Just tell them what you want in the product and they will make it happen.

Goldman Sachs, to other investors: Hey look, we have this new awesome product for you. The assets in the product have been hand-picked by an outside firm who specializes in this sort of thing, so you can be confident that’s it’s going to do well. *snicker*

And then, big shock, the product tanks, the investors lose over $1 billion and the hedge fund guy makes a corresponding $1 billion. Note that the real problem here is not that Goldman Sachs purposely created and sold a crappy product. The problem is instead one of asymmetric information, which in this case is the financial equivalent of Groucho Marx’ “I don’t care to belong to a club that accepts people like me as members” quote. Simply put, if you have a really smart guy trying to sell you something that he owns, he’d better have a good reason for needing to sell it, since otherwise you’re probably getting taken for a ride. This situation is a classic example of the lemons problem- you know, where the shady dude is trying to sell you his used car and not telling you that it’s been in 5 accidents and has a faulty transmission- except that we’re talking about a financial product rather than a Honda Civic with a rolled back odometer.

I try to generally be as objective as possible (and have in fact defended Goldman’s business practices in the past), so I want to stay way more out of the discussion of whether this is a sign that more financial regulation is necessary than Rachel Maddow does in the video above. I will, however, point out that what Goldman Sachs is accused of is already illegal under current law, so I’m not sure how new regulations in and of themselves would prevent this behavior. Cue the oversight conversation…

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The Doom Cycle http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/the-doom-cycle/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-doom-cycle http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/the-doom-cycle/#comments Mon, 19 Apr 2010 16:07:40 +0000 Jon Brooks http://www.economybeat.org/?p=8144 The Doom Cycle , described by the web site New Deal 2.0 as "the current boom-bust-bailout structure of the financial sector that leads to economic crises."
The “Doom Cycle” is one of the most significant ideas within the discourse on the current economic crisis. What the “Doom Cycle” offers is an explanation and a solution to the current financial crisis and the conditions which helped to create it. The “Doom Cycle” serves as a framework through which we can begin to address the economic condition of America in the twenty-first century. If we are to avoid another financial meltdown, leading thinkers believe that serious reforms are necessary. Without them, another, worse crisis may be inevitable. Through this idea, we gain a paradigmatic view of the financial system, and are able to understand the attitude and atmosphere that fosters a cycle of risk, gain, and collapse.
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Simon Johnson is a professor of entrepeneurship at MIT. In the video below he speaks about The Doom Cycle, described by the web site New Deal 2.0 as “the current boom-bust-bailout structure of the financial sector that leads to economic crises.” Johnson talks about the system of incentives to take greater and greater risks that has developed since the Reagan Revolution.

The “Doom Cycle” is one of the most significant ideas within the discourse on the current economic crisis. What the “Doom Cycle” offers is an explanation and a solution to the current financial crisis and the conditions which helped to create it. The “Doom Cycle” serves as a framework through which we can begin to address the economic condition of America in the twenty-first century. If we are to avoid another financial meltdown, leading thinkers believe that serious reforms are necessary. Without them, another, worse crisis may be inevitable. Through this idea, we gain a paradigmatic view of the financial system, and are able to understand the attitude and atmosphere that fosters a cycle of risk, gain, and collapse.
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Pennies http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/pennies/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=pennies http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/pennies/#comments Tue, 06 Apr 2010 18:31:07 +0000 Jon Brooks http://www.economybeat.org/?p=7914 According to this chart from Visual Economics, there are 1.65 trillion pennies in circulation.

penny2

That’s messed up.

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Dismantling consumer protection – a history http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/dismantling-consumer-protection-a-history/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=dismantling-consumer-protection-a-history http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/dismantling-consumer-protection-a-history/#comments Mon, 05 Apr 2010 17:38:06 +0000 Jon Brooks http://www.economybeat.org/?p=7844
"Federal regulatory functions all had become dominated by political pressure from the providers of services promulgating ‘free markets’ and ‘lifting the regulatory burden’, greased by millions of dollars of campaign contributions and lobbying."
One of the sticking points in enacting the financial reform bill stuck in the Senate is the creation of a new consumer financial protection agency, which Republicans have ardently opposed.

This post from the financial sector policy blog Finance: Facts and Follies summarizes the dismantling of consumer protections in the mortgage and credit card industries in the 2000s.

Many of the steps violating unsophisticated consumers’ protections against predatory lending came from a cascade of federal, not state, regulatory actions and legislation.]]>
“Federal regulatory functions all had become dominated by political pressure from the providers of services promulgating ‘free markets’ and ‘lifting the regulatory burden’, greased by millions of dollars of campaign contributions and lobbying.”

One of the sticking points in the Senate in enacting the financial reform bill is the creation of a new consumer financial protection agency, which Republicans have ardently opposed.

This post by former World Bank and Federal Reserve economist Barbara N. Opper, on the financial sector policy blog Finance: Facts and Follies, summarizes the dismantling of consumer protections in the mortgage and credit card industries in the 2000s.

Many of the steps violating unsophisticated consumers’ protections against predatory lending came from a cascade of federal, not state, regulatory actions and legislation.

The financial industry’s influence on Washington, evident in the late 1980s when Alan Greenspan went to Chair the Fed, gained momentum between 2000 and 2008 when the industry ‘captured’ the administration and Congress. Investors sophisticated or not lost protection, as did consumers, especially the unsophisticated. As the famous post-Napoleon expression goes, this was “worse than a crime it was a blunder” because US financial institutions’ ability to attract profitable business worldwide rested on the trust that had been the outcome of our once-effective regulation.

To set the stage, in the 1970s a lot of consumer protection came into place. States enacted “Truth in Lending Laws” and the Fed was to handle consumer protections related to bank lending. By then, 64% of residents owned their homes, financed by self-amortizing home mortgages most of which carried fixed rates. With regulators enforcing strict underwriting standards, delinquency and foreclosure rates were very low. Credit cards were issued only to those with very strong credit records.

So when we started hearing about consumers being lured into very disadvantageous credit card and mortgage loans, it was reasonable to ask how so much predatory lending could prevail against Truth in Lending and other consumer protection in place. The answer is two rulings from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). One in 2003 prohibited states from enforcing their own truth in lending laws. Eliot Spitzer, former NY State Attorney General, said “Not only did the Bush administration do nothing to protect consumers, it embarked on an aggressive and unprecedented campaign to prevent states from protecting their residents from the very problems to which the federal government was turning a blind eye … all 50 state attorneys general and all 50 state banking superintendents actively fought the new rules.” It took until June 29, 2009 for the U.S. Supreme Court to rule in favor of the states. The other, in 2004, prohibited state bank supervisors from inspecting, supervising and overseeing national banks located in their state.

The impact of this regulatory approach on the examination and supervision functions should not be ignored. Examiners used to look at samplings of loan underwriting that would have caught “liars’ loans”, no-down-payment loans, wishful thinking property valuations, and other abuses of the go-go-mortgage lending years from 2003 to 2008. Instead, they focused more on the way banks handled Bank Secrecy Act and Patriot Act laws monitoring customer transactions.

Between 2000 and 2008, the economy was stagnating. Encouraging consumption with ready access to debt evidently turned into a policy tool to maintain economic growth. Household debt doubled. That growth was fueled not just by mortgages but also by credit card use as federal regulators looked the other way while credit cards were issued to youth and other elements of the population ill-equipped to handle such ‘easy’ credit. By then, states could not effectively offset federal regulators’ inaction because of the OCC rulings and the domination of the banking industry by national banks. Also, interest-sensitive home building with its collateral durable goods purchases is always a standard Fed policy tool. With more-than-accommodative monetary policy and lax underwriting standards, home property values rose at a pace never before seen. This was the kind of bubble the Fed was created to prevent. It was possible to track GDP growth with and without consumption fueled by home-equity draws.

Securitization was once a reasonable approach to improving the marketability of a home mortgage portfolio but it became destructive. One reason is lenders’ eliminating the free prepayment option to improve predictability of the payment stream for the investor. That removed a long-standing valuable right of borrowers, especially those who woke up too late to the predatory terms of their mortgages.

Many criticize the patchwork of overlapping banking regulatory authority involving several federal agencies and the state where a bank did business. But these two OCC rulings show the value of that overlap. Federal regulatory functions all had become dominated by political pressure from the providers of services promulgating ‘free markets’ and ‘lifting the regulatory burden’, greased by millions of dollars of campaign contributions and lobbying. If it had not been for these two OCC rulings, state authorities could have prevented the predatory terms foisted on unwitting borrowers.

The United States system had been designed by people who understood the dangers of concentration of wealth and power, moral hazard, conflict of interest and self dealing. It was a lesson learned from the Pecora hearings, and is the lesson to be relearned by the Angelides Commission.

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http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/dismantling-consumer-protection-a-history/feed/ 1 That’s what I want… http://economybeat.org/arts/thats-what-i-want/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=thats-what-i-want http://economybeat.org/arts/thats-what-i-want/#comments Mon, 29 Mar 2010 17:55:42 +0000 Jon Brooks http://www.economybeat.org/?p=7622 From the UK artist Shardcore, a currency-defacing project called Money, that’s what I want.

poundskull

For those of us living in a capitalist society, there is an inexorable link between our lives, our perceived happiness, and the bits of paper we exchange for goods and services. A banknote has no inherent value, it is merely a reference to a sum, held in our names, by the issuing authority – in the UK, the bank of England.

There is an imbalance of opportunity inherent in cash, the rich have access to more of the world than the poor. Many people are obsessed with money, the ‘creation’ and acquisition of wealth in-and-of itself. This is, of course, an illusion – the actual value of money is a flexible agreement within a society mediated by the shifting tides of the economy. When that agreement of trust is compromised the ramifications can be substantial. Witness the recent crash in world markets, leaving this country, and many more, with unimaginably large debts, created in our name to prop up ‘the banking system’.

I started a campaign of subtly defacing currency about two years ago. Using a custom ink-stamp and UV ink, I have been tagging all the money that passes through my hands. To date, that’s now well into the thousands of pounds. The stamp itself is invisible, until illuminated under a blacklight – commonly used in this country to check for counterfeit notes.

This work is really about how we use these pieces of paper as markers of our passage through time. We spend to live, and live to spend. Each note we hand over gets us a little closer to death…

Video:

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The dirt on JPMorgan Chase http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/the-dirt-on-jpmorgan-chase/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-dirt-on-jpmorgan-chase http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/the-dirt-on-jpmorgan-chase/#comments Wed, 24 Mar 2010 11:28:57 +0000 Jon Brooks http://www.economybeat.org/?p=7435 We first found this on The Awl. It’s a photo of what’s described on the blog I ought to be working as a pile of manure left in the entrance of a Chase Manhattan bank ATM at 10th street and 2nd Avenue in Manhattan, with this explanation:

This happened across the street from my apartment. The protest happened yesterday. Chase is one of the biggest investors in mountain top removal mining. The protesters said they would leave a mountaintop in every Chase.

chasedirt

The blog EV Grieve, however, clarified that the pile was actually dirt, and a comment there directed us to the Reverend Billy, an activist/performance artist famous for his stunts targeting American corporations. Here is the Reverend and his choir doing their thing at Chase:

More on that protest from the Reverend Billy site. And the Rainforest Action Network has a page called JPMorgan Chase, Banking on Dirty Energy, which claims “JP Morgan Chase is the largest US bank financing mountaintop removal coal mining, which literally involves blowing the tops off historic Appalachian Mountains and poisoning drinking water to extract a relatively small amount of dirty coal.”

In the interest of providing equal time, here’s JPMorgan Chase’s 2008 Corporate Responsibility Update. But let’s face it, without the singing and dancing, it’s a tough slog…

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Sub-prime the Musical http://economybeat.org/arts/sub-prime-the-musical/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=sub-prime-the-musical http://economybeat.org/arts/sub-prime-the-musical/#comments Thu, 18 Mar 2010 19:32:14 +0000 Jon Brooks http://www.economybeat.org/?p=7228 Tip o’ the hat to Laura at EconomyStory for sending us Sub-prime the Musical. The site consists of a series of podcasts by a college student named Madison Koshy, who created them from research she did on the causes of the credit crisis. Naturally, she then wrote song parodies to illustrate the concepts she had learned. From the About page:

I was extremely upset about the state of the economy, but I found it very difficult to understand what was happening. So this summer, I pursued an independent project where I read and researched about what was going on, and then I attempted to re-explain it through podcasts as a means of better understanding the information. Wanting to make my blog a little more interesting, I incorporated song parodies that tied into the material.

Here is Act I, Scene I, called “How it All Began.”

And here is a song parody, based on “The Brady Bunch” theme, called accompanying song, called “The Credit Crunch.”

You can also follow “Sub-prime the Musical” on Twitter.

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Lehman, Geithner, and a new bank crisis? http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/lehman-geithner-and-a-new-bank-crisis/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=lehman-geithner-and-a-new-bank-crisis http://economybeat.org/banking-and-finance/lehman-geithner-and-a-new-bank-crisis/#comments Tue, 16 Mar 2010 15:52:09 +0000 Jon Brooks http://www.economybeat.org/?p=7122
“…there is every reason to believe the biggest banks are hiding huge losses on second liens….Another financial crisis is nearly certain to hit in coming months. The belief that together Geithner and Bernanke have resolved the crisis and that they have put the economy on a path to recovery will be exposed as wishful thinking.”

In a post on the blog New Economic Perspectives, L. Randall Wray, a professor of economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, says that as President of the New York Fed, Timothy Geithner had to have known about an accounting gimmick that allowed Lehman to help hide massive debts in the months leading up to its bankruptcy in 2008. The Lehman collapse was one of the immediate triggers of the financial crisis that led up to the Great Recession.

Furthermore, he believes, banks are similarly hiding additional losses that will cause another financial crisis this year.

Timmy-Gate: Did Geithner Help Hide Lehman’s Fraud?

Just when you thought that nothing could stink more than Timothy Geithner’s handling of the AIG bailout, a new report details how Geithner’s New York Fed allowed Lehman Brothers to use an accounting gimmick to hide debt. The report, which runs to 2200 pages, was released by Anton Valukas, the court-appointed examiner. It actually makes the AIG bailout look tame by comparison. It is now crystal clear why Geithner’s Treasury as well as Bernanke’s Fed refuse to allow any light to shine on the massive cover-up underway.

Recall that the New York Fed arranged for AIG to pay one hundred cents on the dollar on bad debts to its counterparties—benefiting Goldman Sachs and a handful of other favored Wall Street firms. The purported reason is that Geithner so feared any negative repercussions resulting from debt write-downs that he wanted Uncle Sam to make sure that Wall Street banks could not lose on bad bets. Now we find that Geithner’s NYFed supported Lehman’s efforts to conceal the extent of its problems. Not only did the NYFed fail to blow the whistle on flagrant accounting tricks, it also helped to hide Lehman’s illiquid assets on the Fed’s balance sheet to make its position look better. Note that the NY Fed had increased its supervision to the point that it was going over Lehman’s books daily; further, it continued to take trash off the books of Lehman right up to the bitter end, helping to perpetuate the fraud that was designed to maintain the pretense that Lehman was not massively insolvent. (see here)

Geithner told Congress that he has never been a regulator. That is a quite honest assessment of his job performance, although it is completely inaccurate as a description of his duties as President of the NYFed. Apparently, Geithner has never met an accounting gimmick that he does not like, if it appears to improve the reported finances of a Wall Street firm…

Geithner has denied that he played any direct role in the AIG bail-out—a somewhat implausible claim given that he was the President of the NYFed and given that this was a monumental and unprecedented action to funnel government funds to AIG’s counterparties. He may try to deny involvement in the Lehman deals. (Again, this is implausible. Lehman executives claimed they “gave full and complete financial information to government agencies”, and that the government never raised significant objections or directed that Lehman take any corrective action. In fairness, the SEC also overlooked any problems at Lehman. But here is what is so astounding about the gimmicks: Lehman used “Repo 105″ to temporarily move liabilities off its balance sheet—essentially pretending to sell them although it promised to immediately buy them back. The abuse was so flagrant that no US law firm would sign off on the practice, fearing that creditors and stockholders would have grounds for lawsuits on the basis that this caused a “material misrepresentation” of Lehman’s financial statements. The court-appointed examiner hired to look into the failure of Lehman found “materially misleading” accounting and “actionable balance sheet manipulation.” But just as Arthur Andersen had signed off on Enron’s scams, Ernst & Young found no problem with Lehman.

In short, this was an Enron-style, go directly to jail and do not pass go, sort of fraud. Lehman’s had been using this trick since 2001. It looked fine to Timmy’s Fed, which extended loans allowing Lehman to flip bad assets onto the Fed’s balance sheet to keep the fraud going.

More generally, this revelation drives home three related points. First, the scandal is on-going and it is huge. President Obama must hold Geithner accountable. He must determine what did Geithner know, and when did he know it. All internal documents and emails related to the AIG bailout and the attempt to keep Lehman afloat need to be released. Further, Obama must ask what has Geithner done to favor his clients on Wall Street? It now looks like even the Fed BOG, not just the NYFed, is involved in the cover-up. It is in the interest of the Obama administration to come clean. It is hard to believe that it does not already have sufficient cause to fire Geithner…

Point number two. Lehman used an innovation, “Repo 105″ to hide debt. The whole Greek debt fiasco was caused by Goldman, et. al., who helped hide government debt. Whether legal or illegal, Wall Street has for many years been producing financial instruments designed to mislead shareholders, creditors, and regulators about the true financial position of its clients. Note that Lehman’s counterparties in this fraud included JP Morgan and Citigroup (who actually precipitated Lehman’s final failure when they finally called in their loans). It always takes at least three to tango: the firm that wants to hide debt, the counterparty that temporarily takes it off their books, and the accounting firm that provides the kiss of approval…

Third point. To the extent that debt is hidden, financial institution balance sheets present an overly rosy picture—of course, that is the purpose of the financial “innovations.” Enron did it; AIG did it; Lehman did it. What about Bank of America, Citi, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Goldman? We now know that the New York Fed subjected Lehman to three wimpy “stress tests,” all of which it failed. Timmy’s Fed then allowed Lehman to construct its own sure-to-pass “stress” test. (We know, of course, that the test was absolutely meaningless because, well, Lehman passed the test and then immediately failed spectacularly. Timmy then let the biggest banks run their own stress tests, which they (surprise, surprise) managed to pass.

As our all-time favorite Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan liked to put it, “history shows” that when financial institutions pass their own stress tests, they are actually massively insolvent. There is no reason to believe that this time will be different. Mike Konczal reports that there is every reason to believe the biggest banks are hiding huge losses on second liens. These are second mortgages or home equity loans that amount to about $1 trillion of which almost half are held by the top four banks. Since the first principal of a mortgage is paid first, it is likely that much of the second liens are worthless. Yet banks are carrying these on their books at 86 to 87 percent of face value—which was necessary to allow them to pass the stress tests. Konczal shows that at a more reasonable loss rate of 40% to 60%, the four largest banks would have “an extra $150 billion hole in the balance sheet”. I won’t go into the policy conundrum implied for President Obama’s plan for principal reduction to help homeowners (the banks will not allow renegotiation of underwater mortgages because that would force them to recognize losses on the second liens).

Of greater importance is the recognition that all of the big banks are probably insolvent. Another financial crisis is nearly certain to hit in coming months—probably before summer. The belief that together Geithner and Bernanke have resolved the crisis and that they have put the economy on a path to recovery will be exposed as wishful thinking. In the bigger scheme of things, this is only 1931. We have a long way to go before bank assets (and nonbank debts) are written down sufficiently to allow a real recovery. In other words, a Minsky-Fisher debt deflation is still in the cards.

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