Bush tax cuts vs. Obama health care

March 4, 2010Jon Brooks 3 Comments »

From a recent post titled “What Are These Three Numbers” on the economics blog Econbrowser comes this chart:

bushtaxcutsobamahealth

“The first bar is the impact on the unified budget balance of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act (EGTRRA) of 2001. (Ed. note: That’s the first Bush tax cut.) The second is the impact on the budget balance of the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act (JGTRRA) of 2003 (the second Bush tax cut). The third bar is the CBO estimated impact on the deficit of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (aka the health care bill) proposed in the Senate on November 19, for 2010-2019.”

These numbers, represented in billions of 2010 dollars, were taken from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.

As you can see, the two tax cuts increased the deficit about $1.8 trillion dollars, while the proposed health care bill will actually modestly decrease the deficit. As one of the main anti-health care bill criticisms is its cost, this is a potentially effective talking point. (Plus, both of the tax cut bills passed via the reconciliation process, the proposed path to passage for the health care bill and the subject of a major to-do between the two political parties.)

But not everyone is buying the argument. Two responses to the post on the site:

You betray your agenda in that you are using statistics to lie.

These are not even remotely similar and your facile comparision is misleading. You juxtapose two laws that are mostly tax cuts (which allow people to keep more of what they earn) with a tax increase and spending bill.

Yes, I will stipulate that the Republicans were irresponsible by cutting taxes without also cutting spending, but they were at least starting from a position of small surpluses. It isn’t immoral to return some of that income to those that produced it.

The CBO score for the (health care bill) is also horribly misleading. It omits the “doctor fix” and is frontloaded with deficit reduction before the expanded benefits kick in. Tax increases start immediately and ramp up ahead of outlays until they take the lead in 2016.

In addition, I find it hard to take the cost estimates from 2015-2019 at face value. Every single expansion of government involvement in health care has ended up costing more than the initial estimates. I fail to see why this would be different…

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This analysis is BS. It basically states that the health care act doesn’t hurt the deficit. However, a lot of the taxes are back end loaded (read, never going to be enacted) and the other taxes to pay for this cover 10 years, to provide services for 4 or 6 years, meaning it takes twice as many taxes per year to cover the costs on an annualized basis, meaning this really is all a bunch of BS and going to result in additional huge deficits. Especially since there are no real cost control measures.

3 Responses to this entry

  • Goebel Says:

    Of course this is a simplistic representation, and it doesn’t factor in all the myriad of factors that are reasonably applicable. If you insist on including in this analysis all of the factors you’ve stated about why it’s faulty, you must also include other influences as well. For instance, in our global economy, our method of providing health care is so inefficient that we spot the rest of the world $900 billion each year. This occurs in large part as a result of the rationing by insurance companies. The inelastic nature of the health care market forces those who’ve been denied or priced out to seek care in the least efficient sources, like emergency rooms. If the market truly did produce the highest level of efficiency our total health care costs would be closer to 10% of GDP rather than 20%.

  • Henry Massingale Says:

    3/08/2010

    This economy will not balance with this concept of a tax forum against the Health Care System. The issue of how to force pay into this system of Health Care may have worked but I am still troubled over the progressive tax forum within this Bill. It covers so many items and Countries that it only forces the system to adjust itself. In some areas, increases against the people and the troubled economy, and in other areas, less effects will be felt.
    But this is my big problem, Government Officials seek help and they are to proud to ask us, “the true working force of Government.” It is understandable they have failed the People and within the United States Of America all we ask is to see us as who we are and not try to bring us into this world of the intellectual. I guess our Prime Directive is that of Star Trek, so it must be understood that for millions of people we are just as happy as can be making $13.00 per hour and we have no interest in this world of politics, and how to be a Enstine. Government Officials must understand that there is a level of people within different parts of this Country, that seek to be only that they find to make them happy.
    As for this economy well, it is said that the U.S.A. Arms Division has created enough arsenal to destroy every last creature in the world 2 times over,built with tax dollars. This would be funny if not for the irony of it. And now as time has passed Government Officials keep failing. Before 9/11 all the way to today.
    1.As it is in a world of a system, when employees continue to fail, one or two things happen, one; you get fired, two; if you see into a person a good, then it is political correct to implement a penalty or roll back in pay. But this implement of penalty is more favored in the course of action in the Federal Employment World. So how to fix the economy and unite it with the Health Care issue. It would be in the Countries best interest to implement a 10% per cent penalty against every State, County and Government Official within this Matrix of failures. Hey what is that old saying, what is good for the Goose is good for the Gander. I am serous about this, it is past due to show that our Government Officials they have failed, their system failure reaches into this world of warnings that they brush aside as if the information is not worthy noting. From Pearl Harbor to 9/11/2001 to 3/07/2010 of our tax system and Health Care Reform. This 10% per cent penalty should go into the Health Care Forum.
    2. The big problem that Government Officials have is that they have no street credit. President Obama still has some but if he does not take his family and step away from these dueling Parties, that fight over this Health Care Dollar, and stand with Us he will lose all credit from the streets to the county.
    3. President Obama, I would say to you, you have one last chance to regain the hopes and dreams of the American People. To reach out in a concept that states, if there is 250 million people in trouble because of these failures, I would give all my money to them and then I would say to all that I gave money to, “I have no money left, would you all please give me $1.00 back and then I would have $250. million dollars to start all over again.”
    4. Some have stated that I clam to have spiritual in site or something of the sort. I assure you this is not true, so when I state that I asked God to help, it is my way of saying hey Bobby show me how to work on theses Chevy engines. But I do thank you for the consideration. Consider me a cross of Jethro Bodine from the Beverly Hill Billies with my 10th. Grade education and Vin Diesel from the move Pitch Black.
    5. Henry Massingale
    6. FASC Concepts in and for Pay It Forward
    7. http://www.fascmovement.mysite.com on google, look for page 1 american dream official site

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