Yesterday we referenced a Floyd Norris column in the New York Times called “Why So Glum? Numbers Point to a Recovery,” which discussed the persistence of gloom in the air despite an improving economic outlook.

A good question, and Times’ readers weighed in with answers in the comments section. A sampling:

Perhaps the sad reality that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer with the aid of our elected Senators, Congressmen and Presidents is depressing. Perhaps the fact that the United States is a plutocracy has dimmed people’s hopes for the future. Perhaps the fact that America doesn’t really have a sense of community or true social fabric woven into its core is upsetting. Perhaps we’re all upset that the herculean Wall Street thefts of the rich always seem to be legal while petty stealing is worthy of immediate incarceration. Perhaps the duplicity of life is a bit sickening to those with a sense of right and wrong.

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There are NO JOBS in many areas, except for temp work. The young my age put in anywhere from 50 to 150k getting their educations and came out with massive debt, and even if they had a previous full time work history and resume couldn’t get a job, and can’t still. I’m one of the phony census hires, so I’ll have 6-8 weeks more of work, and that’s it. After two years of unemployment one of my friends got a job for 10-15 hours a week, and it is thrilling for her to work in any way at all. This does not touch on the burdens of the unemployed middle aged to pre-retirement aged worker (employers have literally put my older aunt on the shelf), or our retirement aged parents who are lending us money, and shouldn’t have to. This does not touch on the people who don’t have parents or relatives or friends and are homeless and destitute. There are no luxury items either; just minimum payments on bills, and food. Everyone I know has applied to McDonald’s, to Target, to wash dishes, and are registered at countless temp agencies. (And like your article of last week described, I’ve done a full time “unpaid internship.”)

But someone says we are in recovery. Wow – that makes it ALL different. Absolutely we need a new stimulus package. Because to call millions of people getting seasonal work every year or two a “strong recovery” is madness.

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From the blog Our Taxing Times, a professional tax preparer injects a little reality into the worldview of those just getting around to making an appointment…

A Little Rant

I really do have returns to finish, extensions to file and clients to call. However, I am hoping that a quick post will relieve some of the frustrations and let me focus on clearing my desk.

Dealing with last minute people is part of the tax preparer job. Some businesses love them, I’m not a fan. I have great clients who show up the last couple of days but this year the numbers have been unreal. Most have been very flexible and understand I might have to do an extension because of the time issue. My problem is the people calling trying to get in anywhere.

I don’t do appointments the last 2 days. I don’t want to encourage taxpayers to hold off that long. I save those days for return pickups, finishing returns I have, a rare walk-in and lost vouchers and estimates. The last 2 days have also been marked by phone calls wanting appointments for today and tomorrow. Several have been willing to come in sooner when they heard about the no-appointment rule. Others have asked about extensions. That leaves a half dozen who actually get mad about the rule. They only have a very specific time they want to come in and they want a guarantee they will get in then. Not happening here. The response varies. Some people get pushy, others whine, a few cuss. A couple might show up to try their luck as a walk in but most won’t.

For people still trying to get someone to do their return by April 15th, think. In my case, you are dealing with someone who has been working 80+ hour weeks for 3 months. I’ve only had a dozen meals in that time that didn’t come out of a drive thru bag. (Most suppers at 9pm) All this is doing fuzzy things to my brain. As I type, I have 10 returns to finish, 8 more extensions to file, a dozen pickup calls to make and all the little parts of running a business. I’m like a school kid in the last few days before summer break. Not someone, I want messing with my taxes.

So, maybe it would be better if you call and talk to me about an extension and an appointment for next week.

“April 15, baby.”

Probably not the favorite video the tea party set…

20 Best Blogs for Tax Advice, according to CareerOverview.com.

From the blog Birds & Bills: Thrashing my way through the financial morass:

How to celebrate the anniversary of screwing up your taxes: Do it again

“We have a letter from the IRS saying we owe them money!” is not what you want to hear when you pick up the phone to answer a call from your spouse.

Ten years ago, the first year we were together, David and I managed to short the IRS to the tune of three grand and unexpectedly owe it all come April 15. The culprit was W-4 confusion: We both checked “married,” not realizing that would set our withholdings as if we were each married *and* the family’s only wage-earner. Throw together two salaries and a higher tax bracket and you have an expensive oops.

Since then, I’ve been pretty meticulous about the taxes, and we traditionally come in for a hefty refund. (Yes, intentionally — we both would rather use the forced savings of overpaying the IRS than cut it close and end up owing. I realise that’s financially foolish, but so far, the money I’m “losing” this way isn’t enough for me to care.) This year’s refund landed in my bank account just three days before David’s panicky phone call.

It turns out what we owed money for was our 2008 taxes. “The income and payment information that we have on file does not match entries on your 2008 Form 1040,” the letter sternly informed me.

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We are heading into the home stretch here at EconomyBeat — the project concludes at the end of April. Thus, this will be our last post on the stock market. Last fall, with stocks enjoying a half-year’s worth of gains, we asked if a September swoon was in the cards. A bullish month later, we wondered if an October apocalypse might prove the market’s undoing. Then, nearing November, we posted a warning from stock guru Jeremy Grantham on a coming correction.

Yep. Wrong, wrong, and wrong. We’re at Dow 11,000, S&P 1200, and Nasdaq 2500 (any moment now). With the bulls running free and the bears still in hibernation, is it as simple as happy days are here again?

Not really. Last week, New York Times columnist Floyd Norris wrote about the lingering pessimism in the face of mounting evidence that the country is experiencing an economic recovery.

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A new paper that will be published in the Journal of Investment Management posits the theory that economists suffer from “physics envy,” aspiring to create economic models “as predictive as those in physics. While this perspective has led to a number of important breakthroughs in economics,” says the abstract, “‘physics envy’ has also created a false sense of mathematical precision in some cases.”

Here is the complete paper, titled “WARNING: Physics Envy May Be Hazardous to Your Health,” by Andrew W. Lo and Mark T. Mueller. From the introduction:

The Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 has re-invigorated the longstanding debate regarding the effectiveness of quantitative methods in economics and finance. Are markets and investors driven primarily by fear and greed that cannot be modeled, or is there a method to the market’s madness that can be understood through mathematical means? Those who rail against the quants and blame them for the crisis believe that market behavior cannot be quantified and financial decisions are best left to individuals with experience and discretion. Those who defend quants insist that markets are efficient and the actions of arbitrageurs impose certain mathematical relationships among prices that can be modeled, measured, and managed. Is finance a science or an art?

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Click on this chart from Visual Economics to see when various health care provisions go into effect over the next nine years.

From the site, the info in non-visual form:

2010

In 2010, there will be three major changes to health care:

1. Insurance companies will no longer be allowed to deny coverage to children with pre-existing illnesses.
2. Children would be able to stay on their parents’ insurance policies until they turn 26 years old.
3. Medicare recipients who fall into a specific coverage gap will get a $250 rebate.

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The one rule of performing improv comedy is “yes ,and…” When someone presents a comedic scenario, you don’t contradict the premise and start acting something else out, you build upon what last performer hands off to you, you effectively say “yes, and…” You continue the scene and forward the action and refine the characters. But how do you continue to say “yes, and…” when everyone…the bank, the public, the whole economy…is telling you “no”? In this EconomyBeat episode we see the inside of running a comedy club, which is probably a tough row to hoe in good times. But in bad times, with the downturn that’s affecting De Pere, WI, it’s proving to be impossible. ComedyCity, the long running improv club in the Green Bay area is facing foreclosure. Independent producer Maria Bartholdi documents the struggle of the resident troupe as they try make an audience laugh while they’re devastated at the loss of their comedy home.

Podcast: Download (Duration: 19:42 — 13.6MB)

Do you have a piece you think should be considered for the EconomyBeat Podcast? Put it on PRX, and add the tag ‘ebpodcast’.

Completed in February, Ice House Detroit is an abandoned house in Detroit sprayed with water and frozen by two artists seeking to dramatize the foreclosure crisis. The project was funded through Kickstarter, an arts-funding web site that we wrote about last September. Here is the Flickr pool of photos of the house, and below is the Kickstarter video explaining the project.

And a rather arty video of the result:

Ice House Detroit from gregory holm on Vimeo.